CA Association of Realtors has released the October 2023 Housing Market Statistics. Most of these sales went into contract in September with a 30 day escrow to result in an October closing.
In the Los Angeles County housing market statistics the median price fell 2.3% in October from September but is up 4.6% from same time last year according to the California Association of Realtors. I had anticipated prices to hold steady which was a little optimistic considering how much rates increased. Ventura County’s prices dropped enough to give back the September increase plus an additional 1%. However the median price is still more than 5% higher year to year.
The total sales month to month increased 8% in Los Angeles County and dropped almost 7% in Ventura County. The increase in Los Angeles County is due to a slight increase in supply. The Ventura County drop is a result of increased interest rates. Los Angeles inventory has increased from the under 2 months supply but is still well under the 6 month level which is generally accepted as a balanced Seller/Buyer market.
High interest rates have been the key driving factor impacting the stats during the last 90 days overtaking low supply which still remains a factor but not the primary factor.
For October contracts = November sales the 30 year fixed interest rates ranged from 7.3 to 7.8%. I expect sale prices to drop a little more but volume of sales is going to drop significantly with seasonal variations. From my experience once we shift off of daylight savings time and it gets dark before 5pm then people move into holiday mode and sales drop. November contracts = December sales could increase a little as rates dropped back down closer to 7.3%. I still think sales volume will stay low through the end of the year and into early January with rates, seasonality, war on multiple fronts so those who would consider selling their home are going to stay in Pause mode and hold tight.
Most industry sources expect interest rates to continue to fall in 2024 based on the expectation that consumer spending will continue to slow down allowing the Fed to drop rates. Additionally it will be an election year and the consensus is elected officials won’t want to face the voters with these high rates. It is unlikely we will see 3% rates again but they should settle long term somewhere around 6% which could bring the market to something near a new normal.
If we have a soft landing or no recession after the New Year and rates head down under 7% I think we will see significantly more Sellers and Buyers come off the fence.
Who to Call
General real estate agents are great for working on every day transactions but if you are a Senior who is downsizing, a family settling an Estate in Probate or Trust administration or a family in a Divorce you need a real estate professional trained for these cases.
For a free consultation on your home’s value, how to prepare your home to sell or the real estate market in general call me at (818)570-1144 or email [email protected] or visit https://janeybishop.com
SRES, CPE, CPRES, RCSD, CDRE
Senior Real Estate Specialist
Certified Divorce Real Estate Expert
Certified Probate Expert
Certified Probate Real Estate Expert
Real Estate Collaborative Specialist – Divorce
