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The CA Association of Realtors has released the July 2024 Housing Market Statistics. Most of these sales went into contract in June with a 30 day escrow to result in a July closing.
In the Los Angeles County real estate housing market statistics the median price increased 2.2% in July over June. Same month last year prices fell almost 10% in July over June in Los Angeles County. Median price also rose this year in Ventura County just .8% whereas last year same time the median price fell by a similar .8%. Median price is still up almost 7% in Los Angeles County from same time last year while Ventura County is up almost 6%. according to the California Association of Realtors.
Good news! I also like to follow where the median price stands compared to it’s highest level. Until recently both Los Angeles and Ventura Counties had hit their highest median price in September 2023. Los Angeles is less than .7% lower than the high and Ventura County exceeded the highest median price, $962,500, by almost $10,000. I have to repeat myself – real estate markets are very local so pay greater attention to the local real estate news.
The total sales volume month to month dropped 1.5% in Los Angeles County month over month and increased 5.4% in Ventura County over the previous month and rose a good amount from same time last year. While it is not as strong as would be expected for the summer months this is pretty impressive since interest rates held pretty closely at about 7% through June which is when most of these sales went into contract. 7% is not the highest level but certainly higher than hoped for after repeated promises from the Feds for a rate cut.
Here are the interest rate levels for the past year.
In the San Fernando Valley it is still a clear Seller’s market as inventory dropped a little to 2.9 months of inventory. A balanced market Sellers/Buyers is considered 6 months so we are still in a Seller’s market.
I continue to watch – the commercial real estate market, California’s economy (especially the unemployment figures), and China’s economy.
According to the Employment Development Dept (EDD) the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Los Angeles County increased over the month to 5.5% in July 2024, from a revised 5.3 % in June 2024, and was above the rate of 4.9 percent one year ago. The unadjusted unemployment rate for the county was 6.5 percent in July 2024. In Ventura County, according to the EDD, the unemployment rate in Ventura County was 5.0 percent in July 2024, up from a revised 4.5 percent in June 2024, and above the year-ago estimate of 4.3 percent.
Besides commercial real estate, there is also a lag in the entertainment industry. On-location Los Angeles-area filming declined 12.4% year-over-year from April through June, according to FilmLA, a nonprofit that serves as the film office for the city and county of Los Angeles. Although there was a significant increase in the filming of scripted TV dramas, commercial productions, feature films and reality TV all saw declines in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, FilmLA found.
For those who like information in a visual format this chart from the Federal Reserve in St Louis is interesting. Credit card delinquencies are at their highest point in the last 30 years.
Lock In Effect
It is also interesting to consider the “Lock In Effect” that the artificially low home loan rates of 2020-2022 caused. Potential Sellers who have a rate much lower than the current market rate are put off by higher rates, current home prices and in some areas such as ours, high insurance prices.
According to a Redfin study this is a breakdown of where current homeowners’ mortgage rates fall:
- Below 6%: 85.7% of mortgaged U.S. homeowners have a rate below 6%, down from a record 92.8% in Q2 2022.
- Below 5%: 76.1% have a rate below 5%, down from a record 85.6% in Q1 2022.
- Below 4%: 57.4% have a rate below 4%, down from a record 65.3% in Q1 2022.
- Below 3%: 22% have a rate below 3%, down from a record 24.7% in Q1 2022.
Some Industry experts believe that this effect will be in place until rates fall to 5%. I believe there are a good number of willing Buyers so it is most important Sellers come off the sidelines to increase inventory. Assuming no macro economic bad news I believe that we will see an increase in activity when rates drop below 6%. There is something pychologically positive about having the first digit in the mortgage rates be a 5 to encourage both Sellers and Buyers to come off the sidelines.
It will be interesting if the Fed’s rate cut finally happens in September which is towards the end of the home buying season as it begins to slow down moving into the holiday season. Maybe we will have a busy Fall instead of Summer.
If you would like to discuss the real estate market or anything in particular, I hope you’ll reach out to me, it.
Who to Call
General real estate agents are great for working on every day transactions but if you are a Senior who is downsizing, a family settling an Estate in Probate or Trust administration or a family in a Divorce you need a real estate professional trained for these cases.
For a free consultation on your home’s value, how to prepare your home to sell or the real estate market in general call me at (818)570-1144 or email [email protected] or visit https://janeybishop.com
SRES, CPE, CPRES, RCSD, CDRE
Senior Real Estate Specialist
Certified Divorce Real Estate Expert
Certified Probate Expert
Certified Probate Real Estate Expert
Real Estate Collaborative Specialist – Divorce
