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The CA Association of Realtors has released the March 2024 Housing Market Statistics. Most of these sales went into contract in February with a 30 day escrow to result in a March closing.
In the Los Angeles County housing market statistics the median price fell 1.5% in March. This is very similar to what happened from Feb to March last year. Median price increased 3.2% in Ventura County which is not quite as high as the 5% increase last year same time. Median price is still up 12% in Los Angeles County from same time last year while Ventura County is up 8% according to the California Association of Realtors.
The total sales volume month to month rose 20% in Los Angeles County and 10% in Ventura County over the previous month but fell from same time last year.
For February contracts = March closings the 30 year fixed interest rates started the month at 6.6% but crept up close to 7%. While it is not a large percentage on an $800,000 loan that would raise the monthly payment by about $200 per month.
The number of mortgage applications dropped in February when rates increased and have picked up in March although not to the level in January. Some Buyers and fewer Sellers are coming off the sidelines but cautiously. Remember that many Sellers are also Buyers and it seems this group are more entrenched than others. They express concerns about the mortgage rates which may be higher than what they currently have and concern about the high prices for their purchase. It is often expressed as “Where would I go with everything being so expensive”.
More local to the real estate market in Los Angeles, in the San Fernando Valley in March the inventory dropped down to 2.3 months of inventory which is a little lower than what we saw in the Fall of 2023 before the holidays. A balanced market Sellers/Buyers is considered 6 months so we are still in a Seller’s market. The change in mortgage rates is really fairly small when viewed from a historical basis but the fact that the Fed did not lower rates in March and the news headlines often sensationalize more than is accurate is still impacting consumer’s decisions.
In our area, the real estate market still has not really warmed up yet for the Spring and Summer selling season. Buyers are coming off the sidelines but the Sellers are making a slow start keeping inventory relatively low. But there is often a “tipping point” and once potential Sellers start to see more activity they should start to step up. As the weather warms up and the days are longer the market should also warm up.
I am also continuing to keep an eye on macroeconomic conditions. The real estate pundits are highly focused on supply and demand which is important but may be overlooking the macroeconomic conditions currently at play – the commercial real estate market, China’s economy and California’s economy (especially the unemployment figures).
According to the Los Angeles Times regarding why California’s unemployment numbers remain higher than the national figures “California’s greater reliance on sectors such as real estate that are highly sensitive to interest rates for financing and investing has hampered the state.
Even so, unlike the housing bust that brought on the Great Recession in 2007-09, many homeowners aren’t struggling with underwater loans or failing to keep up with payments. The overwhelming majority of people in California and the rest of the country have jobs and most homeowners are locked in at fixed rate mortgages that are considerably lower than the current rate of around 7%“.
Los Angeles County unemployment remained steady at 5.4% but Ventura County’s unemployment dropped down to 4.6% in March. Another key item I will continue to keep an eye on is credit card debt and delinquincies.
Bright Spot
One small bright spot is that there is an increase in inventory of condos and townhouses. This is an excellent choice for first time homeowners, seniors who want to downsize and those who prefer the lower maintenance. In our area we have a broad range of condos and townhouses from efficient and modest units up to those with a wide range of amenities.
Who to Call
General real estate agents are great for working on every day transactions but if you are a Senior who is downsizing, a family settling an Estate in Probate or Trust administration or a family in a Divorce you need a real estate professional trained for these cases.
For a free consultation on your home’s value, how to prepare your home to sell or the real estate market in general call me at (818)570-1144 or email [email protected] or visit https://janeybishop.com
SRES, CPE, CPRES, RCSD, CDRE
Senior Real Estate Specialist
Certified Divorce Real Estate Expert
Certified Probate Expert
Certified Probate Real Estate Expert
Real Estate Collaborative Specialist – Divorce
